Quick Commerce

Recently a read a detailed report from Bernstein research, here are some of charts and figures which caught our attention, full report is available here and all figures are reproduced from below

1. Markets is growing at speed

Waterfall chart of FY30 B2C addressable market for Eternal and Swiggy: about $79 billion across quick commerce, food delivery, dining out and events vs $14 billion GOV in FY25

2. Dark stores everywhere

Map of India dotted with quick commerce dark store locations, clustered around Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and across Kerala and the south

3 winners take all type of business

Bar chart of food delivery market share held by the top 3 companies in seven markets, from 92% in Indonesia to 100% in India, Singapore and South Korea

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4 Both business have optionality embedded

Logos of Eternal (Zomato, Blinkit) and Swiggy (Instamart) core apps alongside newer optional bets such as Bistro, District, Snacc and Scenes

5 Long gestation business with significant capex needed

Bar chart of cumulative adjusted EBITDA for food delivery, 2Q22 to 1Q26: Zomato turns positive in 4Q24 and pulls well ahead of Swiggy

6 More players are joining but leadership established

Line chart of monthly active users for quick commerce players, Jan 2023 to Oct 2025: Blinkit and Zepto lead at about 65 to 70 million

Area chart of MAU market share in Indian online grocery, Oct 2015 to Oct 2025: BigBasket and JioMart cede share as Blinkit and Zepto reach about 75% together

7 innovation will ensure margins would not expand

Bernstein quadrant mapping Swiggy and Zomato food offerings by value vs premiumization and speed vs range, such as Bistro, Snacc, Toing and Gourmet

8 Will GLP play a spoil sport?

Bernstein exhibits: GLP-1 oral pill prices expected to fall about 75% by 2027, and likely GLP-1 users overlap with food delivery power users

The whole report is good and price targets check them directly. I am not invested in either but this may change tomorrow , please do your due diligence this is not investment advice

This is a record of the author's thinking in December 2025, kept as written. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and the author may hold the securities discussed. See the disclosures.