Everything is Cyclical

Written by 1 min read

Collections of pictures, charts , stats

Winners always rotate1

Table ranking Indian sectors by yearly performance, 2014 to 2024, showing no sector led two years in a row
Table of Indian large, mid and small cap calendar-year returns, 2014 to 2024, showing leadership switching between caps with market cycles

Like Seasons factor yielding returns change2

Schroders scatter plot of rolling 3-year value versus growth correlation against US real yields, 1980 to 2021, showing no consistent relationship

A good analyst should be always looking at business cycles to spot them3

StockCharts sector rotation diagram: a business cycle in six stages with when bonds, stocks and commodities tend to bottom and peak

its been proven by formal research

The emerging evidence suggests that within the European market, sector rotation strategies tend to produce returns above the average benchmark, both during contractionary and expansionary monetary policy regimes, while excessive returns within both the US and European markets are observed.4

Want to learn how to spot - Start with RRG relative rotation graph5

Relative Rotation Graph of US sector ETFs against SPY over one year, with sectors moving through leading, weakening, lagging and improving quadrants

We use systems to track these rotation !

Footnotes

  1. https://unifimf.com/wp-content/uploads/fund-sheets/Unifi-Flexi-Cap-Presentation-Full-version.pdf ↩

  2. https://www.schroders.com/en-us/us/local/insights/what-really-drives-rotations-from-growth-to-value-stocks/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com ↩

  3. https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/market-analysis/sector-rotation-analysis?utm\_source=chatgpt.com ↩

  4. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41260-020-00161-6?utm\_source=chatgpt.com ↩

  5. https://humblestudentofthemarkets.com/2021/07/31/sector-review-balanced-leadership-and-rotation/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com ↩

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