PGINVIT - Updates!

For Introduction to PGINVIT read below article

In above article I used FCF available to arrive at DPUs, I think a better approach is to link it to revenue and arrive at potential forecasted DPU, in same sheet not published in last article I had DPU projections linked to revenue and actuals in FY26 (DPU guidance of INR 12) are closer if I had used revenue linkage instead of FCF, it would have been better to analyse the DPU

Spreadsheet of PGINVIT revenue projections by project, 2024 to 2028, with an arrow on the implied DPU dropping from 12 to 11.9 and then 10

So with new valuation report available to us I have extracted revenue projections from all projects and tried to model DPU projections , if you want to do it yourself here are all important extracts from report

DPU is likely to drop to ~9 from FY2028 onwards, unless management is able to add more assets

Line chart of PGINVIT DPU projections to the 2050s: about 12 now, falling to about 9.17 from 2028 and holding near 9 until a late drop

IRR at CMP of 81 is between ~11.5% to 12%

Spreadsheet valuing PGINVIT from the valuation report: revenue, FCF and DPU projections from 2026, with an IRR of about 11.3% to 11.6% at CMP 82

happy to hear your comments below

This is a record of the author's thinking in June 2025, kept as written. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and the author may hold the securities discussed. See the disclosures.

PGINVIT - Updates!

Tankrich research on PowerGrid InvIT

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Tankrich research on PowerGrid InvIT

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