One up on Trump!

April 2, 2025: Trump announced a sweeping set of “reciprocal tariffs” during a “Liberation Day” event at the White House, including a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all foreign imports (effective April 5, 2025) and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., such as a 34% tariff on China, 20% on the European Union, 24% on Japan, and others. These tariffs were aimed at addressing trade imbalances and protecting American manufacturing.

US stock markets had their historic single biggest day declines post covid decline in 2020

On April 9, 2025: Trump did a U-turn announced a 90-day pause on the higher reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which faced a 104% tariff (effective April 9, 2025) due to its retaliatory actions. He also ordered the end of the “de minimis” exemption for low-value goods from China and Hong Kong, effective May 1, 2025.

The recovery was swift V shaped too

However what if I told a simple system that we use alerted us exit two weeks before the event ?

See below, our simple EMA system alerted us to exit 2 weeks in advance (exit signal red shaded area), even after smart recovery index is below alerted exit level red line 5637.33 as on 27th April 2025

What is takeaway ?

structured, data-driven system will outperforms discretionary trading over the long term due to its consistency and objectivity.